Acute variceal bleeding portends poor outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a propensity score matched study from the APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Limited data exist regarding outcomes of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), especially in those with hepatic failure. We evaluated the outcomes of AVB in patients with ACLF in a multinational cohort of APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). METHODS: Prospectively maintained data from AARC database on patients with ACLF who developed AVB (ACLF-AVB) was analysed. This data included demographic profile, severity of liver disease, and rebleeding and mortality in 6 weeks. These outcomes were compared with a propensity score matched (PSM) cohort of ACLF matched for severity of liver disease (MELD, AARC score) without AVB (ACLF without AVB). RESULTS: Of the 4434 ACLF patients, the outcomes in ACLF-AVB (n = 72) [mean age-46 ± 10.4 years, 93% males, 66% with alcoholic liver disease, 65% with alcoholic hepatitis, AARC score: 10.1 ± 2.2, MELD score: 34 (IQR: 27-40)] were compared with a PSM cohort selected in a ratio of 1:2 (n = 143) [mean age-44.9 ± 12.5 years, 82.5% males, 48% alcoholic liver disease, 55.7% alcoholic hepatitis, AARC score: 9.4 ± 1.5, MELD score: 32 (IQR: 24-40)] of ACLF-without AVB. Despite PSM, ACLF patients with AVB had a higher baseline HVPG than without AVB (25.00 [IQR: 23.00-28.00] vs. 17.00 [15.00-21.75] mmHg; p = 0.045). The 6-week mortality in ACLF patients with or without AVB was 70.8% and 53.8%, respectively (p = 0.025). The 6-week rebleeding rate was 23% in ACLF-AVB. Presence of ascites [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.03-9.8), p = 0.026], AVB [HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.2-2.5, p = 0.03)], and MELD score [HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.1), p = 0.001] independently predicted mortality in the overall ACLF cohort. CONCLUSION: Development of AVB confers poor outcomes in patients with ACLF with a high 6-week mortality. Elevated HVPG at baseline represents a potential risk factor for future AVB in ACLF.

Impact of metabolic risk factors on the severity and outcome of patients with alcohol-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic risk factors may impact the severity and outcome of alcoholic liver disease. The present study evaluated this effect in patients with alcohol-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). METHODOLOGY: One thousand two hundred and sixteen prospectively enrolled patients with ACLF (males 98%, mean age 42.5 ± 9.4 years, mean CTP, MELD and AARC scores of 12 ± 1.4, 29.7 ± 7 and 9.8 ± 2 respectively) from the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database were analysed retrospectively. Patients with or without metabolic risk factors were compared for severity (CTP, MELD, AARC scores) and day 30 and 90 mortality. Information on overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension and dyslipidaemia were available in 1028 (85%), 1019 (84%), 1017 (84%) and 965 (79%) patients respectively. RESULTS: Overall, 392 (32%) patients died at day 30 and 528 (43%) at day 90. Overweight/obesity, T2DM, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were present in 154 (15%), 142 (14%), 66 (7%) and 141 (15%) patients, respectively, with no risk factors in 809 (67%) patients. Patients with overweight/obesity had higher MELD scores (30.6 ± 7.1 vs 29.2 ± 6.9, P = .007) and those with dyslipidaemia had higher AARC scores (10.4 ± 1.2 vs 9.8 ± 2, P = .014). Overweight/obesity was associated with increased day 30 mortality (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.24, P = .023). None of other metabolic risk factors, alone or in combination, had any impact on disease severity or mortality. On multivariate analysis, overweight or obesity was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (aHR 1.91, 95% CI 1.41-2.59, P < .001), independent of age, CTP, MELD and AARC scores. CONCLUSION: Overweight/obesity and dyslipidaemia increase the severity of alcohol-associated ACLF, and the former also increases the short-term mortality in these patients.